Rat Rusija-Ukrajina 2024 - komentari

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Rat Rusija-Ukrajina 2024 - komentari

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kunktator ::+ Ma i dalje me kopka gde će Ukrajinci postaviti jaču liniju odbrane

Eh sad. Svako od ovih seoceta moze da bude mjesto odsudne odbrane. Berdichi jos malo pa ko Bahmut, tuku se za njega jos od decembra.

Ajmo ponovo. Zadrzavajuca odbrana znaci branis se toliko da protivniku ne das odsudnu bitku (mozda ispravnije da mu ne das rjesavajucu bitku u kojoj moze da odnese pobjedu) vec pruzas otpor dok ne postane gusto (pregusto) a onda se izvlacis nazad.

Naravno, i u zadrzavajucoj odbrani branices se na nekoj lokaciji odsudno (na primjer ovi Berdici), ali ne zato sto je sad selo Berdichi nesto bitno ili nesto pogodno za odbranu, nego zato sto se tako namjestilo tokom bitke za Avdejevku. I onda je odbrana tog objekta postala poslije pada Avdejevke jako bitna za cijeli sistem odbrane sektora fronta koji se na taj objekat oslanja. Zato ce Berdichi zadnji pasti od ovih sad vec pomalo legendrnih sela pocev od Stepovog, pa preko Lastockina, pa onda Sjevernog, Tonjenke, Orlovke, i sad Sjemenovke.

Znaci, zadrzavajuca odbrana prostim rjecnikom je negdje popustas, a negdje se drzis, sa opstim ciljem da dobijes na vremenu i zaustavis protivnikov napad. Izgubices nesto teritorije ali ces iscrpiti protivnika, tacnije otupices mu ostricu napada, i onda ces ili preci u kontru, ako imas snage za kontru, ili ces prevesti front opet u stacionarni.

Ajde da kazemo da ukri sad nemaju snage za kontru, ili ako imaju snage za lokalnu kontru nece da rade kontru jer nemaju snage na cijelom vojistu pa je kontra na Avdejevki veliki rizik, ili moze da da samo ogranicene lokalne rezultate uz jako veliki rizik.

Po meni, potpuno je nebitno, i nemoguce je predvidjeti, gdje ce odluciti da daju last stand. To ne zavisi od konfiguracije terena. Mada neki tereni su pogodniji za odbranu od nekih drugih. Ali, vidjeli smo da se svako od ovih seoceta lako pretvara u uporiste koje moze uspjesno da se brani duze vrijeme. (napomena, nebitno na taktickom nivou, da se radi o napadu operativnih razmjera, neki kljucni objekti - naselja morali bi da se brane)

Od cega zavisi gdje ce pruziti ozbiljan odsudan otpor. Pa od nekoliko faktora.

- prvenstveno od stanja protivnika. Da li je jos jak u napadu, da li su mu snage razvucene, kakav je sa provizijama i ljudstvom. Ima li jos inicijativu, ili se izduvao. Da li si ga doveo u stanje u koje si htio da ga dovedes. I takticki, i operativno, i uopste gledano.
- drugi faktor je kakve su tvoje snage. I kakav ti je plan. Odsudna odbrana znaci prihvatas odsudnu borbu (ili je ti nameces) sa ciljem da preokrenes bitku u tvoju korist. Ako ne da porazis protivnika (sto su Rusi urdili na RAbotinu) onda bar da mu slomis napadnu ostricu i da ga zaustavis i ponovo stabilizujes front.
Ako to nije cilj, dakle ta presudna bitka, zadrzavajuca odbrana jednostavno nema smisla jer gubis teritoriju za nista, i nema kraja izvlacenju pod borbom.

- treci faktor, ili mozda prvi, je gdje protivnik gura, gdje mu je glavni napor. Tu moras da ga bijes, inace nista od zadrzavajuce odbrane. Jer ces ti da se utvrdis u recimo u Ocheretinu a on ce da probije na Karlovki pa si opet dzabe krecio.

Od te odluke ukro komande, kad procijene da je dosao trenutak da okrenu bitku, ce zavisiti gdje ce se to desiti. U teoriji, oni bi trebalo da od samog pocetka faze zadrzavajuce odbrane znaju gdje hoce da to urade. ALi, da li ce to uraditi tu gdje su htjeli, zavisice od Rusa, da li ce oni odigrati po ukro planu, ili ce stvari krenuti na drugu stranu. A znamo onu maksimu o planovima i bitci.



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pein ::
Koliko se kojim jezikom govori ne uzimati ovo zdravo za gotovo


Iskeno, mislim da ko kojim jezikom govori nije nesto oko cega bi se VVP, Trump ili brat Si narocito sekirali
Poljaci se uvek sale kako su neke od njihovih granica ravne jer je Staljinu dosadilo da se petlja s mapama pa je povukao ravnu liniju... Pa ti sad objasni Staljinu, ako smes
Lakse je nauciti novi jezik Smile

Inace VVP-ov intervju sa Tuckerom i iduci sam svatio kao Putinovo ispipavanje terena pred pregovore, pogotovo intevju s Tuckerom- te Ukrajina je bila do Dnjepra... bila je do zapada....I to je sve fino upakovao da nekom lici na bespotrebne casove istorije...
ili mozda jesu bili casovi istorije i ja gresim...



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Napisano: 16 Apr 2024 0:38

@babaroga

Za Berdiče sam znao da će ih uporno braniti. I pisao sam o tome, negde krajem februara, možda baš u nekoj priči s tobom. I dalje mislim da će Rusima prioritet sada biti linija Očeretino-Keramik a Berdiči su zbog toga bili bitni. E sad, ako Rusi završe i tu liniju onda se, zapadno od Očeretina, otvara lepa mogućnost da poteraju protivnika sa svih ovih linija koje pominjemo, da zamotaju front kako kažeš. U tom smislu nije mnogo bitno gde će biti odsudna odbrana, u Novoselovki 1, zapadnije ili severnije. Sve će to biti podignuto.

Više me ta sela zanimaju zbog jačine snaga koje Ukrajinci tu moraju postaviti. Ne mogu se osloniti samo na ovu "Očeretino" pretpostavku. Evo praktično je pala Semjonovka, tamo sad ide "začistka", Verovatno će uskoro i Umansko, mada i ne mora. Rusi će svakako sa te linije Umansko-Semjonovka demonstrirati i pretiti ka Novoselovki 1. Tu primati kontranapade i provocirati. Bez zaletanja, rekao bih, odatle nije baš idealan pravac za ruski napad manjim snagama. ALI, ... nije ni nemoguć. Rusi su već puno puta pokazali da se ne libe ići glavom kroz zid. I mi ovde čudili smo se ponekad zašto idu težim putem. Tako i Ukrajinci moraju računati s tim i odvojiti pristojne snage za tu liniju. Rusi imaju izbor pravca, imaju inicijativu, a Ukrajinci ne znaju šta pre da brane. Razvlače to malo što im je na raspolaganju na više strana a kad im padne Očeretino ima panika da krene samo takva. Neće im ostati mnogo dubine gde bi pripremili svoj ekvivalent "Surovikin" linije. I lako moće ispasti da je zadržavajuča odbrana bila uzaludan napor. Al jbg, izgleda da moraju tako, nemaju izbora. Šta god da urade, ne piše im se dobro.

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bojank ::2023. - oko 100-120ak T-90M, jos ~300 modernizovanih T-72B3 i T-80BVM i oko 800 popravljenih raznih tenkova (ukljucujuci i one T-54, T-55 i T-62) , sa tim sto nije jasno da li se u popravljene racunaju samo oni uzeti sa livada ili i oni koji su bili izbaceni iz borbe pa popravljeni.Bojane, odakle su ove brojke za 2023-ću?

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Baš sam naletio na neki članak na theaviationgeekclub.com: "Ukrainian F-16s Vs Russian Su-35s"
članak je debilan, naravno F16 superioran itd. i ne bi ga ni objavljivao, da nije jednog komentatora koji je objavio 3 vrlo zanimljiva i iscrpna komentara koje prenosim:

https://theaviationgeekclub.com/us-navy-operations.....u-35s/amp/



Aviator77
Apr 14 2024 at 11:36 AM

Hi to author. If I may ,I will give now some real military tactical and technical facts,data and info. When we talk about possible BVR engegaments there is really no chance for the light single-engined 4th gen fighter F-16.Even if we not count on AWACS help (on its long range air surveillance ,detecting,tracking and vectoring of fighters via digit data link or voice comm) ,Su-35S is far superior and has far more chances to win in any possible tactical situation in BVR engagement.First ,his hybrid monopulse ( not pulse -Doppler like in F-16) ESA radar N035 Irbis is hybrid 'cause it has possibilities of both PESA and AESA.PESA 'cause it has almost 1800 TRE (transreceive elements) on the antenna reflectors and those two TWT's. AESA 'cause in input signals domain,every TRE has its own receive signal processing channel like in PESA N011M Bars-M.In output signal domain,every TRE has its own digital heterodyne signal channel.In fact, waveguide unit inside of the antenna reflector has very inovative digital hybrid-heterodyne output signal system.So N035 can perform like every AESA with sending so many signals/beams simultaenously with different patterns,differ working frequencies and with very high frequency agility(over 1000 times pour sec). It can detect/track e.g. incoming MiG-21 with frontal RCS in centimetric X-band from 450kms away in so called PPS-DO narrow FoV combat mode ( front hemisphere- further detection).Frontal RCS of armed F-16 is much bigger.For those who do not know this fact,N035 Irbis has two huge and very powerfull TWT's where the main has 5kW's on average power in HPRF mode and secondary has 2kW's of average power in HPRF mode.The main can work in narrow FoV PPS-DO mode ,secondary can work in normal ( wide FoV) PPS mode simultaneously.One thing more, N035 has antenna reflector on two-step electro-hydraulic drive (gimbal) ,so total FoV can be increased from 120° (+/-60° in azimuth and elevation ) to 240°, twice as much as of F-16's radar.From tactical point of view it is very important for so called 'beaming tactics' (excellent SLAR capabilities).So,Su-35S can fly very high e.g in upper stratosphere and can detect/track something that flies very low (even low flying cruise missiles or hovering heli's) or can fly very low and can detect/track something that flies very high.F-16 with his radars( old mechanical or even new electronic/AESA) cannot perform that. In High PRF mode with PRF of 300kHz ,max output pulse power of the main TWT is 20kW's and lock-on range in any tactical case/situation with or without enemy radar jamming is 80% of detect/track distance.There is new OLS-35 with 20cm in diameter IRST( MWIR band) that can detect/track incoming fighter on Full AB mode flying in stratosphere from distance of 400kms.Also can detect/track incoming fighter flying on Military Mode(non AB mode) from 80-100kms away. About jamming possibilities of F-16,I can only write this.Ukrainian ex-soviet fighters MiG-29 ( Product 9.13) and Su-27S/P have much stronger jammers from '80s like L203 Gardeniya and L005 Sorbtsiya with waveguide units based on PESA technology.About AAM, there is no R-77M in RuA&SF inventory ,Su-35S possess new Russian R-77-1 (Product 170-1).On March 5 2022 ,two Su-35S engaged group of four ukr fighters Su-27 in BVR with R-77-1 from the distances of 60 and 80kms. All four Su-27's were shot down in the vicinity of Zhytomir(take a look on map where is that city).R-77-1 vs any AMRAAM.First can withstand 50G lateral G-load in both active and passive phase of flight,second only 30G.For outmanauvering/ evading ,engaged fighter must perform 12G turn for the first and 8-9G for the second AAM. First has 50° AoA limit,second only 35°,first has 150°/sec turn rate in both phases of flight second 120°/sec only in passive fligth phase.Time of aerodynamic stability and controlability is 120sec for the first,90sec for the second(AIM-120D).Real Mach number limit for aerodynamic stability and controlability is 0.5M-4.5M for the first and 1.5M-4M for the second.Besides new medium/long range R-77-1, for engaging big (non maneuvering)air targets,Su-35S possess new heavy very long range hypersonic R-37M with max possible authorised launch distance of 400kms (high speed,high alt launch parameters). All best to author !


Aviator77
Apr 14 2024 at 6:21 PM

Some update info. Forgot to write about frontal RCS in centimetric X-band of light single-engined MiG-21 and it is 3sqm.Certainly ,F-16 has much bigger RCS when armed with AAM only (even without drop tanks). Other details,if anyone noticed Su-35S flying in Syria carried old IR guided R-27T besides new R-77-1. What was the reason for that ? Old Soviet tactics from 60's implied carrying medium and long range radar and IR guided AAM as combined.It can be very useful for engaging fighters in BVR because when fighter is engaged ,pilot begins to turn and maneuver very hard and sharp and that can be done only in Afterburner mode where IR signature of that fighter dramatically increases. NATO never had this combat tactics and never had any medium or long range IR guided AAM at all! With medium range R-27T pilot of Su-35S in BVR can engage incoming fighter from 35kms in troposphere and 50kms in stratosphere. With long range R-27ET,can engage incoming fighter from 60kms in troposphere and from 90kms in stratosphere.Su-35S can carry max 12 R-77-1( 6 under wings and 6 under fuselage:4 between air intakes and engine nacelles and 2 under air intakes. Also can carry max 4 R-27T or ET under wings only. For close in combat can carry max 6 R-74/L (M /ML) under wings and wingtips. For very long range engagements can carry even 8 R-37M,4 under wings and 4 under fuselage. Note: all radar guided AAM can only be launched via radar data but IR guided AAM can be launched from either radar or IRST data or from both together in so called Cooperation combat mode.About ECM possibilities of Su-35S vs F-16 ,they are undoubtedly on Su-35S side. With its very powerfull wingtip ELINT/EW/ECM stations called L265M10-01 as part of jamm system L175M10-35S Hibiny-M it can send very powerfull intereference signals a couple of hundreds of kms away into front or rear hemisphere of the fighter.ELINT/EW substation called 'Regata' works in 1-40 GHz frequency band together with RWR system called SPO-32 Pastel ( L150-35) in wingslats. ECM substation called 'Proran' works in 1-18 GHz decimetric/centimetric frequency band.Note: waveguide units for ECM substations are based on AESA technology and are specially designed for countering AESA radars in new fighters and new X and Ku band active radar homing heads in new western AAM.Su-35S also possess completely new very long range IFF system based also on AESA technology called type 4283MP as multifunctional digital interrogator with decimetric L-band AESA positioned in wingslats.IFF can be done from over 400kms away. There is also transponder unit called type 4280MD. So,Su-35S possess very powerfull long range centimetric X-band monopulse hybrid ESA radar with capabilities of both PESA and AESA .Also possess long range IFF system based on decimetric L-band AESA and very powerfull ECM system based on AESA technology.There is also one combat system very little known to the West media and its name is 'BOSES-TU Duel-DVB'. BOSES-TU means: On-board Operational-Recommendation Expertise System of Tactical Level called Duel for BVR engagements espacially. Thanks to precise Intel,specialists inserted several hundreds parameters in two digital comps Baget-53-31M ser.1. Paremeters of flight-maneuvering posibilities and combat potential of all NATO 4th and 5th gen fighters ,pretty smart is it? This combat system allows pilot of Su-35S to engage enemy fighters in all possible tactical situations : 1vs1,1vs2,2vs1,2vs2,2vs4 or less ,4vs2 ,4vs4 so in the group or even on the squadron level.Something like this NATO fighters do not possess.I really don't know who that USN Oper.spec. is but as I can see from his comments, he has so many misleading info and data.Maybe it is because he is from USN and not from USAF? As military aviation specialist (radar specialist) ,I can write that so important 'all-energy potential' (energy potential of engines,radar and jammers ,AAM weaponry etc ) is on Su-35S side.That's the fact and that's the true. All best !


Aviator77
Apr 14 2024 at 8:51 PM

Some more info and data. If some fighter engages Su-35S with AAM in BVR combat, there is two way to timely detect incoming AAM.It can be accomplished in radar and optical band. First with radar N035 Irbis which is capable to detect/track bigger incoming AAM/SAM from 100kms away( bigger AAM/SAM have frontal RCS about 0.01sqm) ,second with IR (MWIR band) MAWS called SOAR as part of electro-optical self-defence complex called I-222. SOAR is capable to detect/track incoming AAM/SAM in boost phase from more then 50kms away.There is also SOLO module as part of I-222 acting as LWR . About flight-maneuvering possibilities,Su-35S is much better with much higher 'SEP' (Specific Excess Power),better 'Clmax' coefficient (coefficient of aerodynamic lift) ,with more energy in climbing and turning. Although it is much bigger and heavier then F-16, Su-35S is much better in sustained and instantaneous turns, especially thanks to the engines with TVC.Has much higher AoA limit,Su-35S can even withstand 10G load for some time due to use of new construction material Aluminum- Lithium Alloy called type 1441.Altitud-speed capabilities are also on the side of the Su-35S.All in all, if the F-16s come to Ukraine, they will have no chance against the Su-35S, just as the twin-engined ex-Soviet more maneuverable fighters lighter/smaller MiG-29 and heavier/bigger Su-27 did not and do not have.

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Pola stvari nisam razumeo, ma i više od pola, ali cenim da se dotični upišao u škrabotine ovog naloženog nato piskarala, koji je pokušao plastično, u nekoliko rečenica, u celih 8 redova, da objasni zašto SU-35 nema nikakve šanse protiv F-16.
I onda dođe jedan anonimni komentator, izvadi vatrogasno crevo i zalivaj Mićo.

Postoji na stotine različitih mogućih scenarija, koji prvo zavise od iskustva pilota, iako se to ne može koristiti u tehničkim računicama. A onda postoji XYZ drugih faktora, koji zavise od matematičkih proračuna i raznih naučnih zakona, što čini celu stvar toliko složenom i običnom čoveku teško shvatljivom, da bi pojedinac tako olako mogao da donese ocenu da neko nema nikakve šanse u BVR borbi. Možda su to stvari nedokučive i ovom kvazi autoru ili je dotični samo pristrasan i bezobrazan, i sve radi sa namerom.

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Zanimljivo koliko covek zna tehnikalija o Su 35 ovo nije zdravo svaka mu cast sto je saranio i ubio u pojam svojim komentarima autora teksta,a hvala i vama kolega sto ste sve ovo podelili s nama.
Zanimljivo koliko moze da nosi raketa a i tehnikalije o taktici napada uzivah citajuci.
Sto se rata tice zanima me kakva je situacija oko hersona i zaporozja nismo imali neke skorije informacije vecinom je to bilo donjecki deo fronta.

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I jedna i druga strana su malo odahnule i na zaporoškom i na hersonskom frontu. Nema puno vesti. U Zaporožju oko Rabotina, gotovo da je sve stalo, nema izveštaja, jedino što se uz samu granicu Zaporoške oblasti (par km u Donjeckoj zoni) dešavaju kontakti, Rusi hoće da priđu Urožajnu.
https://t.me/Suriyak_maps/2652


Iz Hersona dolaze snimci uništavanja ukrajinskih vojnih čamdžija na Dnjepru, verovatno kod Krinkija.

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Prilično precizno kabriranje Krasnogorovke:
https://t.me/warhistoryalconafter/158500

Ne da se BMP-3,dejstvuje sve dok ga nije oterala kiša artiljerijskih granata:
https://t.me/warhistoryalconafter/158486

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Opet promjene u onom glasanju u Kongresu za pomoć Ukrajini, Izraelu i Tajvanu.
Naime jučer je Mike Johnson rekao da će se o pomoći Izraelu i Ukrajini glasati u odvojenim paketima. Glasanje je vjerojatno u petak navečer.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/15/politics/house-.....index.html
Čak je išao kod Trumpa po zaštitu jer mu je desni dio stranke prijetio da će ga skinuti s čela predsjedništva Kongresa (House Speaker) ako bude glasanje o Ukrajini.
https://www.geopolitika.news/vijesti/republikanci-.....-ukrajini/

Što se tiče te pomoć od 60 milijardi za Ukrajinu, kako sam i pisao, treba kao u banci vidjeti što piše malim slovima. Za Ukrajinu je 39 milijardi (21 niti ne izlazi iz SAD-a, to je za obnovu njihovih zaliha nešto), a od tih 39, za vojsku je 29, a ostalo za projekte ukrajinske vlade.
E sad ja se ne kužim u cijene, bojank ili netko od stručnjaka vjerojatno zna što se može dobiti za 29 milijardi, iako se za iste pare u ruskom izlogu dobije puno više nego u američkom.

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