Specijalna operacija RF, LNR i DNR u Ukrajini - diskusije, mišljenja....

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Specijalna operacija RF, LNR i DNR u Ukrajini - diskusije, mišljenja....

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  • Darko
  • Pridružio: 08 Dec 2011
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  • Gde živiš: Novi Travnik - ex Pucarevo

Nitko nije planirao uništiti bilo što u Ukrajini za jedan dan. Ovo je toliko elementarno da ne treba ulaziti u dublju analizu.

Nakon dva i nešto dana ovo je uspjeh.

Ali ovo je daleko od gotovog. Pored svih ciljeva koje treba ispoštovati treba vidjeti i kako dalje. Zasada, uz iznimke, dobro je vidjeti da se kroz naselja prolazi i da nema značajnih uništavanja civilnih objekata.

Priča da Ruski konvoju staju jer nema goriva je opet glupost neviđenih razmjera...



Registruj se da bi učestvovao u diskusiji. Registrovanim korisnicima se NE prikazuju reklame unutar poruka.
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  • Pridružio: 11 Dec 2016
  • Poruke: 1919
  • Gde živiš: Beograd

Позивам powsrb да овде постави коментар избрисан на другој теми, америчку анализу руске логистике у овом рату.

Не верујем да је цела анализа тачна, и да је дефинитивно превише песимистична према Русима, али ипак мислим да има мало истине у њој. И оно што ме је од првог дана чудило - где је сва та логистика? Оваква операција, као инвазија, захтева огромну позадину. Амери да би напали Ирак са око 130 хиљада војника, били су упослили фактички целу своју војску на Блиском истоку и Европи. Сваки батаљон био је пропраћен, фигуративно говорећи, бригадом логистичке подршке. Имају снимци огромних колона Америчке војске која се креће у Ираку, где су 90% возила просто камиони са храном и горивом.

Тога нема нигде у Украјини, јесте да немамо снимке али нешто би негде испливало, од цивила. За сад видимо само мале јединице, добро наоружане али са врло танком логистичком подршком, барем за сада. Такве јединице могу да постигну успех у првих пар дана, после тога не.

Ако ускоро не почне очигледан прилив огромних конвоја са логистичком подршком, знаћемо да је нешто жестоко заказало. И у том случају ме не би чудили и озбиљно успешни контранапади Украјинаца.



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  • Pridružio: 25 Avg 2011
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Sve što leti, leti vrlo blizu zemlje.
Možda mi očekujemo da su Rusi kao NATO u svojim najslavnijim danima, kada su se iživljavali nad nama i Iračanima, ili smo očekivali da će da krstare po nebu kao nad Sirijom. Ali Rusi nisu ni blizu te moći koju je imao NATO, a Ukrajinska PVO je daleko jača od naše.

I ovaj desant na zapadu, kako će to da brane?

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  • Pridružio: 29 Nov 2019
  • Poruke: 156

Nema nikakve invazije. Lepo je receno, specijalna operacija zato se najvise i koriste specijalne jedinice.

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  • Pridružio: 27 Avg 2011
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  • Gde živiš: treći kamen od sunca

Kad ti PVO i tehniku pocnes uvlaciti medju zgrade a pozivas maloljetnike da ti brane glavni grad sa molotovljevim koktelima znas koliko je sati. Ali ne, "invazija" ne ide kako treba..

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  • Pridružio: 11 Dec 2016
  • Poruke: 1919
  • Gde živiš: Beograd

panda1 ::
Nece biti uzimanja veliki teritorije osim Donbasa, sto nije malo. I onoga na jugu sto su uzeli, verovatno ce tamo traziti bazu kako bi omogucili vodu Krimu.


Ако Руси желе да испуне свој план за Украјину, не сме бити било каквог узимања територије. Чак би и Донбас био враћен у ту нову Украјину, кроз некакву конфедерацију. Уосталом и Путин је рекао да неће бити никакве окупације, из целе његове мантре да се закључити да је циљ свргавање државног врха Украјине. Колико је то реално, видећемо.

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  • Pridružio: 29 Nov 2019
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+ citat

I bice vracen u konfederaciju sa ruskim bazama ili bazom kao garantom.

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  • Pridružio: 09 Okt 2015
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Stize pojacanje Ukrajincima, nakon ovoga Rusi mogu samo da pakiraju kufere..

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  • powSrb 
  • Legendarni građanin
  • Pridružio: 08 Mar 2015
  • Poruke: 9225

Ево је.

Једна критичка анализа друге страна. О проблемима Руса у Украјини, недостатку залиха, проблема са ваздушном подржком и допремања горива итд. Већ се појавило пар снимака где Цивили стају пред Руских оклопа где су ови стали услед недостатка горива итд.

Информације забрињавајуће делују за Руску страну. Видећемо у наредним данима како ће се ово одвијати, очигледно да је негде запело озбиљно. Блиске ваздушне подршке скоро и да нема.

Преносим преписку у целости, па тумачите.

Citat:I am going to try to explain the irrational Russian Armed Forces behaviour towards strategy, common thought, or even the chances repatriated SSO that are now POW try to murder a bunch of men with stars. Here\'s where I will start from. The Russian armed forces have never attempted anything like this. This isn\'t about what kind of war they\'re fighting it\'s about what they\'re capable of mustering. Secondly, it seems the decision making structures have a low opinion in general of Ukraine and their fighting abilities and sort of an ideal that there\'s a willing subservience in Ukrainians if they get to be part of Russia.Pure racism informing their decision-making process.

Thirdly battalion tactical groups are terrible units to support operations. They have overloaded the commander lack support and might not properly integrate with air or do adequate scouting as signals and recon are missing along with liaisons with them. Fourthly without standing down even if parts of the UA Nat Guard, Police, Border Guard, Territorials and Army are defeated, UA regional commands can be autonomous for days and are vast structures, short of ordering their demobilization their removal is way too costly for RuMoD.

And there\'s a lot of hidden corruption and misreporting that gets baked in into calculations but the higher you go up the chain as in a corporation, the more dimissive management is that it will be an issue. AKA Putin doesn\'t even remotely grasp how bad it is.

Based on those 5 let me try to explain the situation now. Russian units aren\'t stopping fire or limiting use of their kalibrs and stand off strikes. This is all they could muster south. Kalibrs are limited by launch tubes, a bit over a hundred is what they had ready. We saw constant trains and movement over time moving Ru equipment and lots of aircraft being moved over to mustering points and at the end people.

By then the supply was at its limit just keeping them warm and fed. They found out the hard way this was their logistical limit. What people sa wasn\'t that troops packed spare tanks for long drives. They were carying their fuel reserves on them. The few organic refueling trucks were not enough to make up an actual reserve or depot. They had one full compliment, some spares in one truck , thats it.

This didn\'t seem that crazy in the Kremlin because the prevailing thought in the higher echelons and Putin\'s inner circle and the FSB was one highly dismissive of Ukraine highly hyped up by Russian army propaganda reporting. They missed that they were buying their own bullshit The release of the information paralyzed them in terms of decision making. But the inherent bias remained and UA delayed mobilising so it didn\'t dissuade them.

For 7 days they ate away supplies rather than actively trying to build them further, they were waiting for a go order. The limited supply meant it had to be a mad dash. BTGs were split into smaller sub-units travelling on multiple roads to avoid congestion. When they met something they\'d wait to coalesce or get into a fight. If the UA was surprised it would work. Were the Ru troops quality ones they\'d do better with just surprise on their side. But they were mostly poorly trained as full units were never called up before.

Usually, a brigade would send only a company and could handpick. Now it\'s either confess the lies about readiness or be creative. Because the corruption had created such a rot, brigade commanders chose "creative" (criminal), conscripts were added to the build-up. Ghosts soldiers on the roster were hidden. That meant BTGs were far greener. When these hit a city or made contact they\'d deploy in unideal formations of the platoon to company size.

Not their fault all that much, this is what they knew. Then if a UA unit knew in advance where they were and was careful, it would anihilate the BTG splinter formation. Because the timetable had to be kept, supplies were already short with the delay Ru troops would go a step further. They\'d keep one sub unit to block and redirect subsequent units, the rest would continue on parallel roads. Again timetable meant usually more major roads. After a couple of road blocks, BTG\'d be diluted, lost a bunch of units and fighting to standstill. You\'d expect that there would be air or artiller support. But BTGs aren\'t suited for that, when they move in chunks in parallel the artillery spotters could be in another group. As we said also there was a problem stocking supplies but still CAS should probably not be as limited? Yes but Russian SSO more used to directing it had other tasks and Russia doesn\'t have a platform like the US surveilance planes and drones that can operate in contested air. And the air was contested because of the limited early strikes due to the small build up + limited recon of where UA AF & AD were prior to this.

Satellites take pics at known times, moving equipment often can dissuade strikes as it\'s uncertain anything will be in place. What then was struck were major stationary objects, depots in main areas, radars, major command and control but again limited by a number of reloads.

So then Ru MoD started rolling the columns with heavy support of helicopters and planes ahead. This works on day 1 when you know where your guys start & can track where they are easily and you know beyond that point it\'s all enemy. Once you land and refuel, it\'s less easy especially because as we mentioned, a BTG splitinter lacks a signals unit, just has a few officers. Then comes the air asault. Becuase you have to be quick you also have to do risky stuff. The problem of course is that because your helicopters are parked in fields, ready for one load with some trucks and one set of ammo, you can do it once a day with each group. You still have to try to take the airport fast and get guys in because if the operation takes too long and you haven\'t kept them(the UA) on the back foot your green troops are still moving piecemeal on roads, don\'t have much with them, any small village could be their end. So the air assault fails, part of the pincer moves fail, you can\'t budge most of the UA troops what do you do? You go for broke, hope you win the race between entrenchment in Kyiv and you just throwing all you have and hope if you decapitate UA, regional commands lose faith.

Otherwise because what remains of your force is split in small groups moving on main roads UA can mobilize move via back roads and just recapture most of the towns as you have few troops for actual 24/7 duties and to even spot them moving back into the town. Can it work? I don\'t know. Is it a good plan. Hell no. Could they execute anything else, without the entire structure confessing the army has corruption,which yes the boss expected, but it\'s such a rot it might cost him his throne, yeah not when he\'s in this mood. So the spineless bunch decided to throw away 18-19 year old conscripts and veterans and pray they get lucky. Also that Putin hasn\'t noticed how nuts this is shows that he\'s either delusional or is completely inept when it comes to military affairs.

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Ја бих тај циљ проширио и на војно-технички план- озбиљно осакакти украјинску војску и свести је на ниво на коме за дуго неће бити пријетња.

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