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- powSrb
- Legendarni građanin
- Pridružio: 08 Mar 2015
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_Petar ::slonic_tonic ::
ništa oni ne rade planski
Izgleda, valjda su ocekivali da Rusi ginu za njih a oni posle da slave... I posle neko nadje za shodnbo da kritikuje Ruse u konktekstu da nisu dovoljno pomogli.Већ су им Руси криви, кажу Руси су преузели команду над свом артиљеријом, без њих Тигрови немају арт подршку. Исто кажу није било авијације да им помогне, Руси поштују примирје.
Увек они наћу кривца, осим себе.
Преглед стања, од стране про ребелског налога. Добрих уписа има. Преносим у целости, заједно са кукњавом.
https://twitter.com/MENA_Conflict/status/1131295706642341888
Citat:A short thread on the capture of Kafr Naboudeh.
To preface, because hope springs eternal after any of these kind of victories: the military situation on the ground in Syria has not changed. The moment Assad, with or without Russia/Iran, decides he would like to sunbathe in Idlib or go for a hike above Jisr al-Shughour, that course is set. So long as his commanders don't rebel against him, the regime *has* the manpower and the firepower to do so. At extreme cost in lost men and equipment, and politically might be untenable, but it's best to disillusion yourself now. The regime has *one* major frontline it needs to mass men and material on: the Idlib/spine of Latakia corridor. It can just hold solid everywhere else or react as necessary when ISIS boogie men come Mad Maxing out of the desert or small insurgent groups smoke a checkpoint in Daraa. The die is cast, and there will not be a military stroke of brilliance from Idlib that reverses regime gains and alters the course of war.
But... what lies before the SAA is a herculean task should they choose to ignore all the obstacles and just go for it. The last 24 hours events with the surprise reversal of regime gains in Kafr Naboudeh is evidence of it. No one has ever accused the Syrian regime of military brilliance. Not since they gave away the Golan Heights faster than you could say Mazel Tov. But even the regime surprises me sometimes with their ineptitude. The last few weeks have shown rebel position after rebel position fall to the combined might of Russian/Syrian aerial and artillery bombardment of rebel positions, followed up with overwhelming force of arms as armor and infantry sweep forward. A lot of "the rebels didn't fortify enough!" wailing has been heard from pro-opposition twitter, but frankly, that's hot garbage. You can only fortify your position *so* much before the combined tonnage of high explosives and superior firepower/protection of your enemy overwhelms your positions. That Qalaat al-Mudiq, Habit, Kafr Naboudeh, etc etc fell, should shock no one. The regime is able to concentrate tremendous firepower that compensates for it's incompetency in arms. Quantity *is* a quality all it's own when you're talking about the number of gun barrels barking and mortar tubes smoking or sorties rendered. So of course those towns fell.
1
What's surprising, is that despite YEARS of knowing how shitty they are in the defense, the regime repeated the same mistakes that, coupled with opposition competency and most importantly cooperation, led to the rapid fall of Kafr Naboudeh, to an underequipped force without the aid of a superpower's air force (or any airpower at all). Yesterday, as daylight began to fade, HTS in conjunction with NLF, Faylaq al-Sham, and I'm sure I'm missing some,
 
launched ferocious rocket artillery, IRAM, mortar, and tube artillery barrage on Kafr Naboudeh. Not a lengthy barrage that telegraphed a looming offensive, a rapidly executed flurry of explosive munitions that was immediately followed up by highly mobile shock troops w/armor.
 
 
With support by fire positions comprised of heavy technicals blazing away with heavy machine gun and AA cannon fire, as well as ATGMs locating and knocking out SAA's own machine gun positions, technicals, and armor, rebel columns, highly vulnerable on the move, reached their positions near the city, disgorged their payloads of infantry, fresh from not having to walk/run to their targets, and close combat began as night began to fall. Darkness can be a double edged sword, it effects both parties, but in the offense you have the advantage of *knowing* where your enemy is, and being able to move accordingly. The defender has to look everywhere, unsure where his attacker may pop up from, while the attacking troops have already reconnoitered and determine the location of their attack. And an enemy who's spent the last 20-30 mins
 
hunkered down as your barrage takes its effect, is probably not paying as close attention for the invariable follow-on attack as he should. Speed, intensity, violence of actions: these words aren't just hollow phrases uttered to pump up Marines for combat.They're necessary traits to keep an attack from stalling enough that your enemy recovers and can either thwart of dull the surprise and ferocity of your attack. From what video has emerged, the attackers had all three yesterday as they silenced the supporting arms, suppressed defenders, and reached their objectives under the cover of heavy weaponry, to close with and destroy their enemies in close combat.
To anyone who's watched the Syrian conflict, it should be of zero shock that when the regime fled, they left behind large quantities of weaponry and ammunition. What's telling
 
is that what was left behind, could have rightly *wrecked* or at least thoroughly blunted nearly any offensive the rebels could mount. Among the captures: two 57mm cannons mounted on trucks, 23mm technical, quad barreled 14.5mm HMG technical, at least two tanks, BMPs, and static
 
heavy machine guns, all extremely useful weapons for beating back a fairly lightly armored, mostly infantry opponent. The regime didn't lack for defensive works, there were few vehicle approaches, and they possessed anti-vehicle mines (defused almost immediately by the attackers) but that still didn't stop the regime from responding to heavy violence with either a stalwart defense, or an organized and efficient retreat. A defense might be costly, but it saves ground, and a retreat may be frustrating, but it retains manpower and equipment. What the regime did instead, was wait til the situation was dire, halfheartedly fight a delaying action, and flee. Immediately upon capture, rebels moved into exploitation, not overextending their lines and pushing on to the next hill/village/town, but turning captured guns around, and lighting up the next line of defensive positions, with ATGM strikes and artillery fire all throughout the following days, and pictures rolling in of destroyed regime armor, and defensive strongpoints.
At the end of the day, this was a single battle, and to be blunt: it was insignificant. The ghanima won from fleeing regime troops will feed the next round of violence, and the morale boost from grasping *some* victory from the string of defeats is vital to a group of fighters who find themselves in a slowly tightening noose. But it doesn't change the overall force structure, nor eventual outcome of a serious Idlib offensive. What it *does* show is that over 8 years of war, the opposition has continued to mature and coalesce into a light infantry combined arms force that's capable of punching way above their weight when it has time to organize, while the regime has made almost no improvement at retention of territory it recaptures, remains an abysmally incompetent force on defense, and only manages to drag itself forward through incomprehensible levels of firepower and a complete disregard for any civilian loss of life, absolute destruction of infrastructure, contented to plant the flag in a pile of ash, rubble, bones, and the hopes of dreams of school children & old women, look utter misery and destruction in the face, and call that victory
It's a hollow "victory" the regime wins
Шта су користили у нападу од теже технике
фотке - https://imgur.com/a/4xpO77Y
Citat:count the armoured vehicles the rebels deployed for the counterattack in northern Hama. Total count as follows: HTS 4 T-72's, 2 T-55's, 4 BMP's and 1 BVP-1 AMB-S. NLF: 3 Panthera F9's. Jaysh al-Izza: 1 T-72, 2 T-62's, 1 T-55.
Уништен им је један тенк, ХТШ камерман снимио, вероватно мислили да је САА тенк.
т72
 
Ово исто снимили џихадисти, мислили да је САА.
бмп1
 
Доста ПОВР испаљено, додаћу САА губитке и број испањених ПОВР на оних 20 од почетка офанзиве када нађем времена.
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