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- powSrb
- Legendarni građanin
- Pridružio: 08 Mar 2015
- Poruke: 9416
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Главни проблем због ког САА није у стању да напредује и да оконча једном за свагда питање Идлиба је број жртава и недостатак политичке воље. САА би можда и заузела Идлиб и побила све који јој стану на пут, али би изгинули жестоко у том подухвату. А после тога би их чекао Африн и север Алепа. То је значи једно 50-100 хиљада шарених да се са њима обрачуна. А после свега тога на ред долази исто толико жутих.
Све би то и ишло брже, а ови горе би се разбежали у Турски да је терен чист, да има политичке воље и да се Иран поново укључи у борбе. Од како су блокирали Иран пре 2 године да нападне после Алепа ка Фуи и Кафреји и да удави терористе, они се више нису јављали, очистили су пустињу и ту је крај.
Дететине хиљада шија џихадиста из Ирана, Афганистана, Пакистана седи по пустињи и на југу Алепа и чека нешто. Да су и они напали на Идлиб када и САА пре 2 месеца друга би се песма певала.
Сада имамо ситуацију, да шарени користе све што имају, све више и више странаца учествује у нападима, долазе појачања са севера Алепа да држе линије, Турска их шаље, Турци само шаљу миницију и ПОВР, и ови једва држе САА. А САА и поштује глупо примирје, политика јој брани да настави напад. Али САА користи само своје снаге, а шарени све што имају скоро.
Од хезболаха нема ни трага, то нам све говори да од одлучујуће битке још увек нема ништа.
Ево мали преглед стања који сам написао за један сајт на брзину пре 2 дана.
На Енглеском, видећу да напишем и на Српском крајем лета ако буде каквих помака.
Citat:
Without knowing real objective we cannot access the outcome. But offensive is definitely not a success, if not a failure. Compared to 2015 first offensive when Russians came, SAA made some gains, but the inability to take the high ground north of 2 towns they captured put whole offensive in question. Rebels took heavy casualties, given the sheer amount of firepower SAA and Ru posses, but clearly, they decided to fight for every meter of territory, knowing very well what will happen if SAA manages to take high ground or manage to encircle Latminah area from the north.
1. Ghrab Plain
SAA easily pushed trough Grab plain up north after the capture of Qalat Al Madiq but, well before other forces manage to capture high ground to the east of it. So that offensive stopped, as forces in the low ground become easy prey for rebels ATGMs operators that were looking from high ground. Rebels tried a couple of counter-offensives in the same area but failed, as RuAF worked around the clock. SAA remained stuck in Grab plain, taking hits from time to time, as rebels exploit a high ground advantage for long range hits on vehicles using ATGMs.
2. Jebal Zawiyah
SAA entered Harsh al Kirkat forest area with tanks, as video evidence show, but that is it.Ru news sources mentioned, that rebels in that area decided to use small teams of snipers, ATGMs, and occasionally raids to harass SAA forces. The only front that seemed easy to advance for SAA, given the inability of rebels to concentrate bigger force, and ability of SAA to do that with constant RuAF support. But this stopped as rebels counter-attack started at Kafr Nabudah.
3. Kafr Nabudah
Back and forth battle raised the cost in lives for both sides, rebels had to do something to stop SAA on other front and to show that they will fight for every step, opting to attack and die when needed, inflicting new casualties to the SAA in the process. SAA was fast to retake lost town, forcing rebels to retreat. Rebels also opted for flank attacks, one of them ended disastrously east of Kernaz, where RuAF responded immediately and destroyed a couple of armours stopping the attack in a matter of hours. Same happened on July 11, when rebels lost more armours in another attack, this time they managed to capture a village of Hamamiyat for a day.
4. Tal Malah
Rebels last try to stop SAA advances up north, with partially territorial success, but success nevertheless, As this offensive stopped all SAA advances up north, except the last capture of Al-Qasabiyah, the first village in the hilly area north of Kafr Nabudah where SAA discovered underground tunnels and defensive positions, showing the depth of rebels network of defences that are prepared in advance.
This rebels offensive also brought Suheil Al Hassan to the frontline, showing the importance of counter-attack for SAA there.
Conclusion
There should be no delusion which side is dominating the battle here in terms of inflicting casualties. It is the side with the second most powerful air force in the world. Rebels are taking heavier casualties, but it seems that with the influx of fresh forces from Turkish controlled areas up north they can sustain the fighting of this intensity for some time.
SAA is definitely taking a beating too, rebels decided that they will fight this battle like it is a battle for Idlib itself. Maybe that is the reason for SAA to stop the attacks, but there is no sign of them missing man, as Iranian groups are sitting and waiting. We all remember Aleppo battles were all that all sides had were used.
Now, we have a situation that there are no more fronts, and everything is concentrated on above-mentioned fronts and around Idlib, but not all forces are used, yet.
While we are observing higher than average presence of foreign forces on the side of the rebels in recent fightings in North Hama, mainly Uzbek, Uyghur and Chechen squads. Also the fresh influx of fighters from Turkish controlled areas up north.
There is still no sign of thousands of Iranian backed foreign groups in this battle, as it appears they are not participating as was the case in previous years. And lastly Lebanese Hezbollah, possibly the only group that can face highly trained and equipped foreign and HTS troops, is evidently absent from the battlefield.
Politics are playing the major part here, as Turkey and Russia continue to cuddle in their somewhat abusive relationship, sending messages through their backed groups on the ground from time to time. As rebels attack Russian airbase for years now with drones, for the first time in years Turkish positions in Idlib found themselves under fire, but contrary to Russians that manage to shot down all drones, Turks appear unable to stop attacks given their proximity to the frontline.
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