Energija i energenti kao strateško oruđe odvraćanja

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U Africi divljaju cene
Citat:Mozambique just raised diesel prices 46% in a single day.
At the same time, its $20 billion LNG project just restarted after four years frozen.
The same war is driving both stories

The diesel hike:
On May 7th, Mozambique one of the poorest countries in the world raised regulated diesel prices by 46% to catch up with global market levels after months of war-driven oil increases.
Also Ethiopia, Gambia and Zambia hiked pump prices by up to 26% in the past week.
Malawi, Tanzania, Ghana and others imposed double-digit increases in April.
Governments across Africa delayed the shock as long as they could with subsidies and tax suspensions.
With Brent holding near or above $100 since Hormuz closed, they've run out of road.

The LNG restart:
On January 29th, TotalEnergies and Mozambique's president announced the full restart of the Mozambique LNG project in Cabo Delgado after nearly 4 years under force majeure due to jihadist violence.
Workers and contractors are remobilising at Afungi now.
First phase capacity: 12.9 mtpa.
Longer-term plans could exceed 18 mtpa.
Right now, Mozambique is a price-taker.
It imports expensive diesel it cannot offset with LNG exports that don't exist yet.
Later this decade, it becomes a material gas exporter into the same market that is currently punishing it.
The Iran war is making those future LNG revenues more valuable and the present pain more acute simultaneously.
The broader read for TotalEnergies:
Mozambique LNG is part of a deliberate reweighting away from Middle East exposure toward Atlantic and African supply alongside US Gulf, Nigeria, and Namibia.
With Qatar under force majeure and Gulf routes disrupted, non-Middle East LNG is the strategy.
Governments under 46% diesel price hikes will face intense pressure to direct LNG export revenues toward fuel subsidies and FX stabilisation not just debt service.
The gap between exporter gains and domestic pain will define how fast Mozambique LNG can scale without triggering the backlash that shut it down once already.
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Citat:Tankers are avoiding Hormuz.
They're piling into Oman instead.Now Oman's ports are hitting their limits .
Mina al Fahal, Sohar, and Duqm are technically operational but tanker traffic has surged as flows divert away from higher-risk Gulf terminals.
The result: berth congestion, longer anchorage queues, and multi-week waiting times for some cargo types.
Salalah, Oman's key Indian Ocean transshipment hub, isn't helping.Iranian drone strikes left port facilities ablaze in March.
The port has been shut since, stranding containers and forcing carriers onto already-strained alternatives.Even the ports that are open are running slower.
Mina al Fahal now requires all tankers to have a fully operational Doppler log before berthing GPS spoofing and jamming in the area make standard navigation unreliable.Ships without one can't dock. That slows the rotation of every berth.
The constraint is now effective throughput, not nominal capacity.
Every safety check and pilot delay means fewer barrels lifted per day tightening realized supply even when the terminal is technically open.
Tanker freight and time-charter rates on Oman–India and Oman–Europe routes get another push higher with every extra day at anchor.
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Napisano: 11 Maj 2026 10:06


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Dopuna: 15 Maj 2026 15:07

Citat:The UAE is fast-tracking a new pipeline to double its oil export capacity bypassing the Strait of Hormuz — from 1.5 million to 3 million barrels per day — targeting a 2027 launch.
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Skacu cene i u Indiji
Citat:India raises fuel prices amid war with Iran
According to Agence France-Presse, India's state-owned oil companies raised the prices of gasoline and diesel fuel by more than 3% on Friday.
One of the reasons for this decision was disruptions in energy supplies due to the war against Iran and economic pressure.
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I Japan u ozbiljnim problemima sa energijom:
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I sad verovatno plaćaju duplu tarifu, u rialima ili juanima za svaki tanker:
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Citat:China is turning coal plant pollution into cheap fertilizer

China’s Jiangnan Environmental Technology (JNG) is transforming toxic emissions from coal-fired power plants into profitable fertilizer, reports China Electric Power News
Instead of burying captured CO₂ underground, JNG uses ammonia to absorb carbon and sulfur emissions directly from smokestacks
The process creates ammonium sulfate and ammonium bicarbonate fertilizers enriched with sulfur and organic carbon
A pilot project at Ningbo’s Jiufeng Thermal Power Plant captures 10,000 tons of CO₂ annually while producing 30,000 tons of fertilizer
Field tests showed rice yields rising 6.2%
Traditional carbon capture can cost up to $100 per ton of CO₂, but JNG says fertilizer sales generate more than $14 profit per ton captured
JNG already controls 60% of China’s ammonia desulfurization market and is now planning a million-ton CO₂ capture project in Xinjiang
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Citat:Europe's biggest new gas project just started drilling.

First gas in 2027
Neptun Deep.
160 km offshore Romania in the Black Sea.
100 bcm of recoverable gas across two fields Domino and Pelican South.
Operators: OMV Petrom and Romgaz, 50/50.
Total capex: up to €4 billion.
Construction is now fully underway across 3 workstreams simultaneously:

→ First development well spudded at Pelican South. 10 production wells planned total.

→ 160 km, 30-inch subsea pipeline under construction. Saipem holds a $1.75 bn contract.

→ Neptun Alpha production platform being fabricated in Indonesia. Topsides complete. Sail away planned for 2026.

At plateau, the field will produce 8 bcm/year.

Romania's entire current domestic output is 9.2 bcm/year.

Neptun Deep alone will nearly double the country's gas production and turn it into a net exporter.
With Groningen gone and Russian pipeline supply structurally curtailed, the EU has very few large indigenous gas additions arriving this decade.
Neptun Deep is one of them.
Surplus volumes are expected to flow toward Moldova, Slovakia, Hungary and Germany via existing interconnectors.
Romania is on track to become the largest gas producer in the EU.
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Ovo teško da će da može bez velikog vatrometa

• 5Ovo se svidja korisnicima: jalos, amstel, dac, kybonacci, DonRumataEstorski
  
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Kina je izgradila naftnu rafineriju u Africi, Evropljani su se naljutili.
Nigerija, zahvaljujući Kini, sada prodaje ne naftu već benzin.
Nigerija, uprkos tome što je jedan od najvećih proizvođača nafte u Africi, nije imala rafineriju.
Kina je izgradila rafineriju Dangote vrednu 20 milijardi dolara. Zahvaljujući tome, u martu je izvezeno oko 44.000 barela benzina dnevno.
Jedna isporuka od 317.000 barela stigla je do Mozambika — to je bila prva isporuka Istočnoj Africi.
Rafinerija sa sedištem u Lagosu, koja radi na ≈94% svog dnevnog kapaciteta od 650.000 barela, zadovoljava unutrašnju potražnju, a višak se šalje u inostranstvo.
Proizvodnja se očekuje da će za tri godine dostići 1,4 miliona barela dnevno. time će postati najveća rafinerija u Africi.

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