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- Toni
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- Pridružio: 18 Jun 2008
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Ovde je generalno tesko voditi bilo kakvu pricu jer se sve svodi na mitove i sta bi neki voleli da bude. Odnosno mora da se oteli krava da bi se nesto objasnilo ali cesto uzalud...
I sad ti dovedes artiljeriju na liniju DMZ i dekas po Seulu a ovi... sisaju palac ? To sa granatiranjem Seula je samo jos jedan preuvelicani mit.
Ovde je puna analiza  [Link mogu videti samo ulogovani korisnici]
a ovo dole sto citiram je sazetak, komentar na isto
Citat:Why North Korea Can’t Flatten Seoul
A fantastic analysis of North Korea’s military capability when it comes to attacking Seoul was done last year by security expert and consultant Roger Cavazos. It’s a long and striking piece, written with authoritative expertise and great detail, or as great detail as it’s possible to go into, given we’re talking about a country nicknamed the Hermit Kingdom.
As Cavazos writes, North Korea probably has about 20,000 total artillery pieces, rocket launchers and heavy mortars. But Seoul, 30 kilometers from the DMZ, is out of the range of most of these weapons. The two pieces that would be able to hit Seoul, and which are the cause of such concern, are the M-1978 KOKSAN 170 millimeter self-propelled gun and the MRL240 M-1985 rocket launcher. As with every gun, rocket and spoon in the Korean People’s Army (KPA), there’s no telling how many they really have, where they are and whether or not they work.
Cavazos’ best guess, backed up by data from globalsecurity.org, is that the KPA has around 500 KOKSAN guns and 200 rocket launchers deployed in the DMZ and targeting the South Korean capital. There are probably many more scattered around the country or attached to military units, but the more guns North Korea points at Seoul, the fewer they have to defend the rest of the border. So the total of around 700 “tubes” of artillery ranged on Seoul seems right. And a far cry from “13,000.”
Not all of those guns will be able to fire at the same time, as some will have to be reserved for defensive purposes and others will malfunction. Cavazos estimates that the best case for the KPA is 2/3 of them available for firing at one time. The KOKSAN can fire about four shells per minute in an opening burst, with the MRL being able to launch between 12 and 22 rockets per minute, though these rates of fire wouldn’t be sustainable during a prolonged battle. Assuming optimal function and maximum efficiency, North Korea will be able to drop about 3,600 shells and rockets per minute on Seoul during the opening stage of a bombardment.
Of course, in large-scale military operations, optimal function is rarely attained. Witness the number of duds that will be fired. During North Korea’s shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, on the west coast of South Korea, the KPA fired over 100 rounds, 25% of which failed to go off. This is an astronomically high number, and not at all in keeping with modern artillery technology. If North Korean artillery fails to explode at the same rate it did in 2010, that would reduce the number of hits on Seoul to about 2,700 per minute, leading to Cavazos estimating about 2,800 fatalities for each minute at that rate of fire, assuming the majority of the population of the city is standing in open ground – meaning as many as 64,000 South Koreans could be killed on the first day of any attack.
These numbers sound terrifying, and nobody should take that kind of death and destruction lightly. But this is the worst case scenario, and probably not at all attainable for North Korea. For one thing, many of those guns will have to move in anticipation of an attack across the DMZ. It assumes unlimited ammunition and transportation, which the KPA doesn’t have. Some of the guns will misfire or malfunction, others will be blocked by dud shells. Crews will become fatigued and sloppy, missing their targets and hitting unpopulated areas. And finally, artillery duels aren’t like a game of scratch golf. The KPA won’t get a mulligan, as US and South Korean guns and aircraft will strike back with counter-battery fire within minutes of the first shells falling. As many as 1% of the KPA’s artillery pieces and rocket launchers will be silenced per hour by a South Korean military that’s had 50 years to plan their response. That number of 2,700 hits will decline with each passing minute, until it trickles down to almost nothing.
The most likely scenario of a surprise North Korean attack on Seoul, based on our available knowledge and some basic math, is a couple of hours of sheer terror and confusion as KPA shells rain down, then a gradual slackening of fire as batteries are eliminated or moved and North Korean forces approach the city as part of an invasion. Seoul is an enormous city and has underground shelter space for 20 million people, so the great majority of the population will be protected and out of harm’s way quickly. And North Korean forces will soon be on the wrong end of a massive counterattack by a force that has better training and newer equipment. Seoul will be shaken, casualties will be high at first, but the city will be far from the “sea of fire” that North Korean propaganda has declared. What’s far more likely from this scenario is a pitched ground battle north of the city to decide its fate, and this is a battle North Korea probably can’t win.
Inace povrsina Seula je nekih 650 kvadratnih kilometara.
Sta ce da uradi granatiranje Seula sa upitnom preciznocu od strane par stotina cevi ? Kako ce to naskoditi vojsci Juga ? Nikako. Kao sto ni kroz istoriju nikakvo bombardovanje civilnih kvartova nije dobilo rat.
Da nebih sada crtao na mapi mozete sami preko koordinata da proverite gde su vojne vazduhoplovne baze u Juznoj Koreji i da nijedna nije u dometu nikakve artiljerije, cak sta vise nijedna sa borbenim avionima nije u Seulu ni blizu [Link mogu videti samo ulogovani korisnici]
Koliko moze da traje masovna artiljerijska paljba ako ti neprijatelj gospodari nebom ? Iiti zasto mi nismo kada je pocela agresija na Kosare izasli iz sume sa 1000 komada haubica i VBR-ova i tukli ceo dan po Albanskoj strani ? A imali smo cime i to na vagone... Nego je bilo udri bezi, koliko se moze.
Ovde se kroz filozofiranje uvek dodje do bolje je nemati nego imati, jedni su picke jer su "amerikanizovani"  drugi su hrabri, jednih ce biti 5 puta vise... I logika gde je rat laksi za podneti drzavi koja prima humanitarnu pomoc a ne drugoj cija jedna kompanija ima veci obrt od cele suprotstavljene drzave.
ssekir75 ::за 50так км не верујем да ће било који систем да успе да одради. нарочито ако нападач крене салвом.
Nece nista biti ispaljivano sa 50 km, to je za SCUD-ove i balisticke rakete, dodaj i AEGIS krstarice kako Korejske tako i Americke i Japanske moguce.
Jugu je vec nudjeno od strane Amerike-Izraela Arrow izraelski, cudno mi da nisu sa Izraelom nista do sada uradili na temu protivraketnog stita.
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