Kriza na Korejskom poluostrvu

4

Kriza na Korejskom poluostrvu

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  • Pridružio: 22 Jul 2006
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MOSCOW, October 25 (RIA Novosti) - Discord at the six-nation talks on North Korea's nuclear program was one of the reasons that drove Pyongyang to conduct a nuclear test October 9, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday.

"One of the reasons [of the nuclear test] was the failure of some parties at the talks to find a proper tone," Putin said during his annual televised question-and-answer session.

The six-nation talks involving North Korea, South Korea, Russia, Japan, China and the United States were launched in 2003 to persuade North Korea to give up its controversial nuclear program after Pyongyang withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

The talks stalled last November over Pyongyang's demand that the U.S. lift sanctions imposed on it for its alleged involvement in counterfeiting and other illegal activities.

Russia advocates the resumption of talks, and has called on the United States and North Korea to take a more flexible approach to the standoff to end the deadlock.

North Korea hinted following the nuclear test that it might be willing to return to the negotiating table if Washington agrees to drop its sanctions.

President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov discussed the issue with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice during her visit in Moscow last weekend. Rice hailed Pyongyang's declared willingness to re-engage in the talks, but said Washington's financial sanctions on Pyongyang will remain in place.

North Korea announced it conducted its first nuclear test Oct. 9, and threatened to take "physical measures" after the UN Security Council unanimously voted October 14 to pass a resolution imposing sanctions on the reclusive Communist state.

The country did not specify what those measures might be, but the possibility of another nuclear test has been widely speculated, with U.S. media reporting suspicious activity at a suspected test site.

North Korea's leader Kim Jong-il told Chinese envoy Tang Jiaxuan during talks October 18-19 in Pyongyang that the country has no plans to conduct another nuclear test, but warned that "the country might take further action if pressure on North Korea continues."

"The situation should never lead to a deadlock, Vladimir Putin said. "None of the negotiating parties should be driven into a corner, with no way out except by escalating tensions."

Vladimir Putin said that diplomacy should be the only way for the international community to dissuade North Korea from further nuclear tests.

"The only way out of the current situation is the resumption of the six-nation talks," he said.
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Iako je tekst off topic u odnosu sta je namera (trebalo da bude) pokretaca teme bila, ovaj tekst daleko rasvetljuje pravo stanje stvari.

Iz ovog teksta izvlacim zakljucak da je mozda neko "namerno" izazvao ovo - To se ocigledno vec zna a i znalo se za najave testova i slicno.
Zasto bi ovo neko izazvao. Pa novac je jedan od motiva. Amerika snadbeva prvenstveno Japan odbrambenim oruzjem. Japan upravo menja svoju vojnu strategiju, integrisuci u nju i mogucnost preventivnog napada, a to znaci kupovinu ili opremanje podmornica, brodova raketama dugog dometa (da ne pricam o silosima). Kupovina novih i upgrade starijih sistema se podrazumeva, a ugovori koji su ovih dana potpisani govore u prilog ovoj mojoj tvrdnji. Tu je i tajvan, a Kina se sprema za za neku doglednu akciju povratka svog dela otudjene teritorije. Ovo sve podgreva situaciju tamo. Nejaki "pritivnih" se favorizuje, i od njega se pravi strasilo, zarad sopstvenih ciljeva. A ti ciljevi su daleko veci od konflikta u tom delu sveta. Americki Raketni Stit (navodno protiv neposlusnih zemalja) je nacin da se delimicno onemoguci Rusija vezano za mogucnost interkontinentalnih raketa, i to je jedan od razloga. Ne bih dalje ulazio u sve ovo ali evo jednog drugacijeg pogleda na sve i to ni vise ni manje nego na osnovu govora predsednika Putina. Mislim da se u ovom slucaju sagovornik ne moze osporiti.



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  • Pridružio: 13 Jan 2004
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Pa sve je to donekle tačno, i to što će ameri još više ubediti japance da im je nuklearni štit potreban, ali ima tu i jedna kontradiktornost. Zašto su rusi bili prvi koji su tvrdili da S Koreja ima bombu, a zapadni saveznici ti koji pokušavaju da minimizuju značaj ovog testa. Drugo pogrešno je tvrditi da Severnu Koreju iko na išta ovako tera. Oni celu ovu igru mogu da prekinu u bilo kom momentu. Kako je Gadafi odustao od svog sopstvenog nuklearnog programa, i uspešno se održao na vlasti. On je bio u mnogo puta goroj poziciji nego S. Koreja, jer su Ameri na njega čak i odpočinjali vojne ajkcije, i on nema iza leđa jakog saveznika. Tokom eventualnog otvaranja Severne Koreje Kina bi im držala leđa i postarala se u dobroj meri da stvar prođe što lakše. Kina za tako nešto ima i kapital i vojnu snagu i jak motiv. Uostalom tako bi se smanjila realna potreba za Američkim prisustvom u J. Koreji... Umesto toga režim u Pjongjangu bira konfrontaciju. Očigledno da su potpuno sigurni kako njihov sopstveni režim nema ama baš nikakvu sposobnost adaptacije i kako im ovaj rigidni hladnoratovski režim ide na ruku.

Da sve to ne mora tako da izgleda dosta je da se pogleda Vijetnam. To je isto komunistička zemlja, i režim protiv koga USA takođe ima dosta, ali jel njih neko pominje, ne. Oni prolaze kkroz period tihe tranzicije i privrednog rasta, nešto slilčno Kini. Isto tako bi lagano is S. Koreja mogla da krene da napušta svoje tvrde stavove i da krene, korak po korak, dok su ameri još zazeti na drugim stranama. Ok, na Vijetnam je verovatno vršen mnogo manji pritisak jer je zbog poznatih istorijskih razloga američka intervencija tamo mnogo manje verovatna, ali ipak oni nisu ni probali da razvijaju nuklearno oružje.


Što se S. Koreje i Kine tiče, desilo se upravo ono što sam očekivao, tiha i odlučna diplomatska akcija Kine posle koje je Pjongjang odustao od daljih proba. Ovo rusi što pričaju može i ovako i onako da se posmatra, ali njihova uloga u ovom sukobu je ipak drugorazredna.



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  • Pridružio: 27 Avg 2005
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@SpelingMistakes
Znaci, amerika je tu da hrani severnu koreju besplatno,tako da bi rusi i kinezi bili sretni (i da ne bi morali oni da hrane svoga tampona).Rusi su bili ti,koji su ih snabdjeli sa reaktorom i pocetnom sirovinom, pa bi amerika , jos trebala da plati ruske napore.Severna korea je komunisticki parazit, koji je unistio svoju vlastitu zemlju,a rezim koristi atomske pokuse, kao sredstvo ucjene da bi ostao na vlasti.

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  • Pridružio: 13 Jan 2004
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^^Ovo potpisujem al aj da se manemo politike

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  • Sad radim sve ono što pre nisam stizao.
  • Pridružio: 17 Maj 2006
  • Poruke: 25758
  • Gde živiš: I ja se pitam...

Kakva je ovo djavolska tema...Teško je ovde voditi raspravu kao da ste u poseti Vinči pa vam neki pripavnik objašnjava teorijske aspekte izrade atomske bombe. Rasprava u rukavicama je lepa stvar, samo što su ovde potrebne olovne rukavice Very Happy . Ovde za raspravu izgleda treba recept tipa ''pazi, tako da ostanem nevina''. Pošto je nemoguće izbeći političke aspekte ove nuklearne afere, jer Koreja isključivo iz političkih razloga pravi ovu bombu, predlažem da se ovde zaustavimo i sačekamo neke relevantne tehničke ili vojno-tehničke podatke i da onda nastavimo priču. Ovako tema izgleda kao dvomotorac kome je otkazao jedan motor - stalno naginje na jednu stranu Very Happy

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  • Pridružio: 27 Avg 2005
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Ovde sam postavio jednu dobro argumentiranu studiju, koja obuhvaca tehnicki dio, politicki dio i rizike ovog korejanskog projekta


rapidshare.com/files/615926/nkorea1.rar.html

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  • Pridružio: 22 Jul 2006
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@dwollner

Nije koreja sama sebi nametnula sankcije - Nego je to uradio neko ko izigrava svetskog policajca (necemo ulaziti u to ko kontrolise Un i na koje nacine - imali smo priliku da osetimo to na svojoj kozi pre nekoliko godina)

Svako ko ne odgovara po bilo kom osnovu biva proglasen za neprijatelja.

Inace tvoji komentari su definitivno jednostrani - ja cu sa druge strane da zastupam suprotnu stranu. Apsolutno stojim iza stava da je to namesteno jer odgovara pojedinima. Ostali su tu pioni. Ali to je definitivno politika koju ne bi smo trebali da koristimo u diskusijama na temama u ovom forumu.
(nigde nisam video da je neko uradio takve studije za pakistan ili indiju - mozda cak i izrael - pitam se sto li nema takvih studija)

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  • Pridružio: 27 Avg 2005
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@SpelingMistakes
"sila boga ne moli" je zivotna realnost.prilagodi se.srbija nije severna koreja.Jedina slicnost je ta , sto je milosevic mislio da ce rusi uci u rat zbog njega, a ovaj iz koreje je mislio da ce kinezi uci u rat zbog njega.obadvojica su se razocarala

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  • Pridružio: 22 Jul 2006
  • Poruke: 943
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Jeste off topic u odnosu na oreginalnu temu, ali mislim da se uklapa u ono o cemu pricamo.

China’s Laser Weapons Possible Threat to Taiwan
December 22, 2003 :: Taipei Times :: News (Stara vest)

China may have a laser weapon, similar in concept to the United States’ air-borne laser (ABL), which they can and may be deploying near Taiwan, in addition to their buildup of short range ballistic missiles.

The Taipei Times cites Taiwanese defense sources that the laser cannon, with a range over 100km—again, comparable to the ABL—has been deployed in Fujian Province facing Taiwan, and that it could be used to disable military command and control systems. One defense official, however, noted that the cannon may only still be in development: “We tend to hope for the best but prepare for the worst. We would rather believe that China has already developed such a weapon and that we should start making preparations as soon as possible.” The Times notes that the United States and Israel have developed laser weapons—the ABL and the Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL)—but these are used as anti-missile defense systems. It is, however, plausible that the Chinese system is designed to have an anti-missile defense capability.

Mene stvarno iznenadjuje sve ovo sto ponekad pronadjem o Kini.

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  • Pridružio: 27 Avg 2005
  • Poruke: 159

@speling, evo nesto za tvoju dusu.......


China Attempted To Blind U.S. Satellites With Laser

By VAGO MURADIAN


China has fired high-power lasers at U.S. spy satellites flying over its territory in what experts see as a test of Chinese ability to blind the spacecraft, according to sources.
It remains unclear how many times the ground-based laser was tested against U.S. spacecraft or whether it was successful.
But the combination of China’s efforts and advances in Russian satellite jamming capabilities illustrate vulnerabilities to the U.S. space network are at the core of U.S. Air Force plans to develop new space architectures and highly classified systems, according to sources.
According to experts, lasers — depending on their power level — could blind electro-optical satellites like the giant Keyhole spacecraft or even interfere with radar satellites like the Lacrosse. Blinding, one source said, is different than disabling given the enormous power required to shoot a laser through the dense lower atmosphere and reach a fast-moving satellite in space. The hardware on the spacecraft can’t be changed given they’re in orbit, but software changes can help them weather disruptive attacks.
Russian jamming systems are publicly known — the Air Force destroyed such a system deployed to Iraq to keep American GPS guided bombs from finding their targets during the 2003. The site was destroyed by GPS guided bombs.
Pentagon officials, however, have kept quiet regarding China’s efforts as part of a Bush administration policy to keep from angering Beijing, which is a leading U.S. trading partner and seen as key to dealing with onerous states like North Korea and Iran.
Even the Pentagon’s recent China report failed to mention Beijing’s efforts to blind U.S. reconnaissance satellites. Rather, after a contentious debate, the White House directed the Pentagon to limit its concern to one line. In that one line, the report merely acknowledges China has the ability to blind U.S. satellites, thanks to a powerful ground-based laser capable of firing a beam of light at an optical reconnaissance satellite to keep it from taking pictures as it passes overhead.
According to top officials, however, China not only has the capability, but has exercised it. It is not clear when China first used lasers to attack American satellites. Sources would only say that there have been several tests over the past several years.
“The Chinese are very strategically minded and are extremely active in this arena,” said one senior former Pentagon official. “They really believe all the stuff written in the 1980s about the high frontier and are looking at symmetrical and asymmetrical means to offset American dominance in space.”
China’s burgeoning anti-satellite capabilities are further evidence of Beijing’s focused military strategy that aims not to engage the United States in direct confrontation, but through asymmetric means, according to Andrew Krepinevich of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington.
Krepinevich points out that China has outlined a set of capabilities it refers to as “Assassins Mace” to keep U.S. forces in the region at risk and away from China’s borders, and tailored to undermine each U.S. advantage from submarine to satellite capabilities.
For their part, service officials are not expressing alarm at efforts to counter the U.S. space advantage, explaining that such moves are predictable and understandable. But they are taking it seriously enough to test ground-based lasers against their own spacecraft to determine their efficacy and map space architectures that are resilient enough to resist such attacks.
The problem, according to sources, is that current satellites are large, on predictable orbits that are easy to track and have scant defenses against lasers.
The United States operates three large optical reconnaissance satellites of the Keyhole-series by Lockheed Martin that were introduced some three decades ago. The loss of any of the three would prove a blow to U.S. space capabilities, sources said, which is why they will be replaced by a large constellation of spacecraft under the Future Imagery Architecture program by Boeing and Lockheed.
Top officials, among them Air Force Secretary Michael Wynne, flatly declined to comment on whether China has attempted to blind its satellites. Chinese officials could not be reached for comment at press time.
Wynne did, however, acknowledge that the Air Force’s space plans are shaped recognizing that potential foes will seek asymmetric means to harm a U.S. space network that gives the American military an enormous edge.
The goal, Wynne said, is to minimize the impact that real-life attacks would have on U.S. space capabilities through a networked architecture that can lose nodes but keep functioning.
Wynne stressed that what’s at stake isn’t merely U.S. military superiority, but the fate of global commerce because signals from Air Force GPS satellites are critical to everything from airline and maritime commerce to car navigation systems.
And unlike the 1980’s threat from Soviet anti-satellite plans, future space attacks will be limited in scope, Wynne said.
“At the time, the Soviets were always talking about a bald-faced assault,” he said. Future “asymmetric attacks are going to be local to try to mask out our capabilities in one region. The trick to winning asymmetrical warfare is to make it irrelevant.”
He said a new generation of GPS 3 satellite “will make further assaults and jamming efforts irrelevant.”
Doing “space and ISR through very different means … means asking good questions,” he said. “Do 22,200-mile-high orbits make sense? Does an orbital periodicity that is well known to any adversary have any relevance today? What you really want is assured situational awareness, position location and communications capabilities.”
But analysts, executives and even officials within the Pentagon have criticized the Air Force, arguing that the service is talking a good game but falling short on execution — largely for lack of budget.
One veteran space industry executive expressed shock at how limited the debate has been to better secure U.S. spacecraft, given the evidence that nations are investing in systems to blind American leaders in a future crisis.
The reason, executives and analysts said, is that such safeguards are complicated and expensive, and become targets when programs go over budget or fall behind schedule.
Case in point? One source said the Pentagon is so thirsty for more bandwidth to handle burgeoning communications demands that it has been short-changing security, which consumes bandwidth.
“It’s a tradeoff,” said one industry source. “And so far, the pressure has been for capacity over security.”
According to analyst Loren Thompson of the Lexington Institute, the Air Force is making poor investment choices not only in space, but ISR programs.
“The U.S. Air Force’s ambitious plan for fielding orbital and airborne reconnaissance systems has begun to come unhinged in the budget process from Space Radar, to missile warning to future radar planes, the whole mission area seems to be melting down,” Thompson said.
Wynne contends that space programs are merely in the process of being restructured to rein in cost increases and schedule slips. Wynne also argues that the F-22 fighter’s powerful radar and electronic capabilities allow it to perform the roles of larger existing aircraft like the Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System, the Airborne Warning and Control System and the Rivet Joint, allowing the service to forgo investment in aircraft that are vulnerable to a new generation of powerful surface-to-air missiles.
“I’m probably the biggest supporter of the F-22 outside the Air Force, and while it’s the best fighter ever and can do these jobs, but not as well as dedicated assets that have the ability to stay on station far longer,” Thompson said. “Osama bin Laden is still at large and there are known vulnerabilities to our space systems. In this environment, it’s odd that the Air Force is cutting its orbital, manned and unmanned reconnaissance assets while presenting the F-22 as a reconnaissance platform. The point is, where are we deficient, firepower or finding the enemy?”
As for China specifically, Thompson said the country has a right to defend itself.
“If you keep looking over the fence at you neighbor’s back yard, you’re going to get poked in the eye, so it’s not surprising that China might be worried about U.S. forces stationed on their doorstep,” Thompson said. “They don’t like it and are figuring out how to poke us in the eye. Now I’m no great admirer of the Chinese leadership, but how would we feel if the Chinese had their aircraft carriers off Long Island. That’s why we have to do a better job of protecting ourselves and I’m afraid that’s not what we’re doing.”
The former Pentagon official put it more bluntly.
“The Air Force is trying to put a happy face on this,” he said. “It’s not that they don’t know what do. It’s that they don’t have the money in their space budget. It’s that simple.”
Another factor is the sheer complexity of building satellites that has fueled cost overruns and schedule delays. For example, the Air Force originally envisioned the National Polar Orbiting Environmental Observation Satellite as a powerful new climate spacecraft. But departments across the government added their unique payloads to the spacecraft, causing integration challenges and cost growth.
The same happens on classified spacecraft as intelligence agencies pile on payloads. Then there is the challenge of ensuring that the technology that is on the spacecraft is the best possible given it will be in orbit for a decade or more.
“Unlike an airplane, once you launch something into space you can’t upgrade it again, so when it comes to technology, you are often reworking your system to get the best available in there because you know that it’s going to be around for a long time once it’s in orbit,” the former official said. “So when people talk about cost, that’s a piece of it. It’s even harder when you’re trying to protect yourself against threats over the next 50 years.”

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