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The beginning of the end of U.S. dominance in the Pacific Rim
ELP DEFENS(C)E BLOG
http://ericpalmer.wordpress.com/2010/12/29/the-beg.....cific-rim/
Citat:What does China’s J-20 fighter aircraft mean this early in its visual discovery?
It might not have the right motors. It might not have the right kind of radar or other avionics. It might not have the right kind of integration of other systems. What it will have is growth room.
Someday the J-20 may have some strike ability but it doesn’t have to in its first “block” or “A” model to be of great use to the Chinese.
What China can do with this aircraft as a basic interceptor will have worth. It has the potential to add more depth to integrated air defence along border hot spots. Combined with China’s AWACS, surface sensors, command and control, surface-to-air missile systems, air refuelling tankers and other fighter aircraft, it will help deny airspace.
China has many air defense scenarios such as; India, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Russia and the U.S. It also has to back up it’s SCO partners.
What kind of threats will this aircraft–as part of the whole Chinese networked integrated air defense system–have to face? The B-2 bomber, legacy long range bombers, possible bat-wings like the UCAS-N. ISR platforms like the RQ-170, Global Hawk, and manned large-body aircraft. There will be the full range of fighter aircraft to game against; various Flanker variants, F-22, F-35 (if it shows up), PAK-FA (India/Russia), and other classic fighter designs. And, an aircraft like this would also be used for cruise-missile defense. From this snapshot, we can see that a basic J-20 as a defensive interceptor will be valuable.
What kind of stealth ability does the initial model need? Not much. Just enough to make the probability of kill (PK) of the AMRAAM or any other radar missile, useless with a nose-on attack profile. If this can be done, you have taken out a lot of the beyond-visual-range (BVR) combat ability of fighter aircraft. With this, you have just nullified an important tool in U.S. air combat ability. What would the F-22, F-15, F-16, F-18, F-35 (if it ever shows up) be without the AMRAAM?
What kind of systems will the first model of this aircraft have if China follows this path? Anything that is off the shelf today. China has AMRAAM-like BVR weapons. It also has a good high-off-bore-sight dogfight missile. Sensors would be an infra-red search and track, and most likely a mechanical scan radar. The initial jet engine for this aircraft might not be what China wants, but if the aircraft can super-cruise and zip along in the 50,000-65000 feet flight range (have a pilot explain to you the amazing amount of effective ground speed at this height) you will have a weapon that will make anything that is not an F-22 or PAK-FA, obsolete.
Why does any of this matter? I will give you one example. In the future, who cares if the U.S. moves a carrier battle group into what China considers its area of influence? America will only be putting thousands of sailors and billions of dollars of taxpayer hardware at unwarranted risk; all with an obsolete carrier air wing.
China’s ability in this area will grow. With an in-debt U.S. and closing down of important production of the F-22, U.S. and allied air power in the Pacific Rim will shrink. The U.S. will stop becoming a credible deterrent. Pacific Rim allies will see the U.S. as unable to maintain regional security. When push comes to shove, they will listen to China and not the U.S.
As Hillary Clinton said, “How do you act tough with your banker?”
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